Scarcity Effect

Scarcity Effect

Unavailability raises desirability, and the reason for the unavailability decides how much. Scarcity caused by other people wanting the thing works harder than scarcity caused by anything else.

What it is

The effect is not about quantity. It is about what the quantity implies. A thing running out because others want it is a message from other people. A thing that is merely rare is not telling you anything.

In effect

Worchel, Lee and Adewole established the structure in 1975 with cookies in a jar, and the detail rarely travels with the summary. Cookies in scarce supply were rated more desirable than cookies in abundant supply. Cookies whose supply changed from abundant to scarce were rated more valuable than cookies that were constantly scarce. Cookies scarce because of high demand were rated higher than cookies scarce because of an accident. And constantly abundant cookies were rated higher than cookies that began scarce and became abundant.

Barton, Zlatevska and Oppewal pooled 416 effect sizes from 131 studies and found scarcity cues generally raising value, desirability and purchase intentions, with demand-based scarcity the most effective form. Two literatures, fifty years apart, same moderator.

What it does not say

It does not validate the badge on your screen. The inventory count is produced by a system you cannot audit, and the persuasive power comes from being a social signal supplied by a party with an interest in the outcome.

It also does not establish behaviour. Purchase intention is the outcome in most of these studies, and intention is one step removed from the till.

Sources

  1. Worchel, S., Lee, J., & Adewole, A. (1975). Effects of supply and demand on ratings of object value. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(5), 906-914. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.32.5.906
  2. Barton, B., Zlatevska, N., & Oppewal, H. (2022). Scarcity tactics in marketing. Journal of Retailing, 98(4), 741-758. doi:10.1016/j.jretai.2022.06.003
  3. Where this came from
  4. 3 books in this library carry this concept, which is corroboration worth knowing about, though these authors read each other and often draw on the same experiments, so it is not independent confirmation.